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Evaluating the Status Quo as an Alternative
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In #DecisionTheory, it's important to compare status quo to alternatives - but when doing so, status quo usually has hidden advantages. 1/9
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This is partly #ChestertonsFence, always a good thing to note - don't change things until you understand them. 2/9
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Status quo usually contains solved challenges you can't see. Here's a software example: news.ycombinator.com/item?id=120214 3/9
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Closely related is what I'll call Chesterton's Efficiency Argument; explain why no one is using your idea already, before trying it. 4/9
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This obviously doesn't imply alternatives can't be improvements, but it does explain what I'll call Boustead's Iron Law of Intervention. 5/9
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This states the the expected value of a policy intervention is zero; on average, changing things hurts as much as it helps. 6/9
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huge, key issue: average is across ensemble. Challenger underserved by status quo can benefit from change. Even chaotic change
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YES. This is complex, and worth thinking about.
(I heard it first referring to trial "interventions," like used in education policy.)
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I posted the link, then missed the conversation. You might be interested in comparing Hypergame theory to this: rand.org/pubs/monograph
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