#Tweetstorm Time!
Fresh from the mind of @davidmanheim, 9 Tweets ×140 characters on:
Evaluating the Status Quo as an Alternative
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Replying to @davidmanheim
In
#DecisionTheory, it's important to compare status quo to alternatives - but when doing so, status quo usually has hidden advantages. 1/91 reply 3 retweets 14 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
This is partly
#ChestertonsFence, always a good thing to note - don't change things until you understand them. 2/9pic.twitter.com/rYF5dhNFxt
1 reply 4 retweets 15 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
Status quo usually contains solved challenges you can't see. Here's a software example: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12021431 … 3/9pic.twitter.com/RmfdCjiak5
2 replies 5 retweets 15 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
Closely related is what I'll call Chesterton's Efficiency Argument; explain why no one is using your idea already, before trying it. 4/9
1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
This obviously doesn't imply alternatives can't be improvements, but it does explain what I'll call Boustead's Iron Law of Intervention. 5/9
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Replying to @davidmanheim
This states the the expected value of a policy intervention is zero; on average, changing things hurts as much as it helps. 6/9
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Replying to @davidmanheim
huge, key issue: average is across ensemble. Challenger underserved by status quo can benefit from change. Even chaotic change
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Replying to @vgr
YES. This is complex, and worth thinking about. (I heard it first referring to trial "interventions," like used in education policy.)
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
cf our slack discussion on chaos as chess strategy etc
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Replying to @vgr
I posted the link, then missed the conversation. You might be interested in comparing Hypergame theory to this: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1449.html …
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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