Yes, the probability builds over time as the rocks are compressed. And faults are not straight so location is important too.
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I think there are periodicities (e.g. PNW big one - 300 yrs) in earthquakes, so perhaps they're correlated processes & hence not iid?
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tjanks
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epistemological answer. If we don't get tectonics well enough, they are iid. If we do, perhaps nothing is iid! Sorry.
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but you can test for iid without having a theory...
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Correct.
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