8/ Non-technologists sometimes *think* they are covering safety/insurance aspects, but they are usually involved in safety/insurance theater
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Replying to @vgr
9/ Exhibit A is of course the TSA security theater. I am sure we're safer since 9/11, but almost all safety increase is in invisible places.
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Replying to @vgr
10/ Not only does "lean" translate to "increase risk", incentives are stacked to increase risk for people who have least ability to complain
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Replying to @vgr
11/ In general, if there is a need to cut costs by X, 10% will come from function degradation, 90% from increasing risk via "leaning"
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Replying to @vgr
12/ Of that 90%, almost all will happen in parts of ops that will affect the vulnerable more. Not today, but at some unknown future date
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Replying to @vgr
13/ Complex infrastructure inherently involves moral hazard because of this: experts manage risk distributions via cost cuts over time
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Replying to @vgr
14/ In this, impacted parties are not blameless. They usually knowingly overallocate resources to function X over insurance of function X
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Replying to @vgr
15/ How do you tell real efficiency increases from fragility-for-cost tradeoffs? Follow the information. Real thing embodies new knowledge
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Replying to @vgr
16/ When you can't find any new information embodied by an evolved system, but it's cheaper, then it is more fragile
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Replying to @vgr
17/ If you find a new information embodied locally, then there is some real efficiency increase and some risk moved elsewhere
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18/ Local new information perturbs information balance of power and some moral hazard, leading to some *new* exploitation of info-neighbors
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Replying to @vgr
19/ Finally, true global information injected into a system (rare, == "disruption") can increase efficiency without fragility
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Replying to @vgr
20/ (of course I mean only limited global: where social costs beyond boundary become part of market dynamics beyond any top-down control)
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