Two observations. 1, direct answer is "forever". Without a reference device, P(A) ~ 0 where A is the goal as writtenhttps://twitter.com/waitbutwhy/status/666068015063146497 …
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JJ 「cιtιƶεɳƒιvε」 🏴☠️ Retweeted Tim Urban
Two observations. 1, direct answer is "forever". Without a reference device, P(A) ~ 0 where A is the goal as writtenhttps://twitter.com/waitbutwhy/status/666068015063146497 …
JJ 「cιtιƶεɳƒιvε」 🏴☠️ added,
(Would be fun to expand the Win condition of the thought experiment to include a device of equivalent performance & aesthetics.) @waitbutwhy
That's maybe 2 or 3 generations, best case. Thus, observation 2:
P(survival(random(specimen)) ~ 1/(O(specialization(specimen))
@waitbutwhy
JJ 「cιtιƶεɳƒιvε」 🏴☠️ Retweeted Steel Valley Speculatorrrrrrr.hodl
Note that in my my above tweet by "generation" I mean ≈30 years, per custom. So re [https://twitter.com/SteelValleySpec/status/666081896464412672 …], it's a stretch, but possible.
JJ 「cιtιƶεɳƒιvε」 🏴☠️ added,
JJ 「cιtιƶεɳƒιvε」 🏴☠️ Retweeted JJ 「cιtιƶεɳƒιvε」 🏴☠️
Big variable is, what happens to life expectancy for a while, even for top generalists and their progeny. To ref [https://twitter.com/CTZN5/status/666093212814045184 …]:
JJ 「cιtιƶεɳƒιvε」 🏴☠️ added,
Conversationally, tl;dr most ppl are overspecialized & will die long before the emergent federation of polymaths rebuild enough to save them
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