A sincere belief in the plausibility of large-scale (n>150, Dunbar's number say) secrecy is the main clueless trait in conspiracy thinking
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I suspect you could discover a constitutive law relating the speed with which a secret is leaked and the number of people who know it at t=0
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Human fraud/deceit detection evolved I think for accuracy at small hunter-gatherer group sizes, intuitions way off at larger scale
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There is a scale of secret-keeping beyond which it is easier to slow the diffusion by adding noise to leaks rather than trying to contain it
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This is the FUD point of a secret. D-Day involved FUD-defense of adding noise of Calais as landing location to keep Normandy less plausible
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When the energy/financial signature of a secret is too big to be hidden, you have to start "hiding" it in a sea of half-plausible accounts
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see NealStephenson CryptNomicon. "Widening the BellCurve"
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