A sincere belief in the plausibility of large-scale (n>150, Dunbar's number say) secrecy is the main clueless trait in conspiracy thinking
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I suspect you could discover a constitutive law relating the speed with which a secret is leaked and the number of people who know it at t=0
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Besides deliberate leaks of bits, Shannon info theory also against huge, long-lived secrets like aliens in area 53.
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This is not a really predictive description. (Those are some/most of the things that matter, but also: importance to outsiders, motive)
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