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A sincere belief in the plausibility of large-scale (n>150, Dunbar's number say) secrecy is the main clueless trait in conspiracy thinking
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Leak time = f(org containment of t=0 knowers, traceability of leaks, severity of consequences for leaking, size of secret, number of orgs)
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Human fraud/deceit detection evolved I think for accuracy at small hunter-gatherer group sizes, intuitions way off at larger scale
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There is a scale of secret-keeping beyond which it is easier to slow the diffusion by adding noise to leaks rather than trying to contain it
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