A sincere belief in the plausibility of large-scale (n>150, Dunbar's number say) secrecy is the main clueless trait in conspiracy thinking
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I suspect you could discover a constitutive law relating the speed with which a secret is leaked and the number of people who know it at t=0
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You'd also have to factor in the weight of the secret, but yes. It would probably be a hockey stick growth
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weight = consequences... yeah. D-Day landings location is a good example, though most didn't know till last possible moment.
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Leak time = f(org containment of t=0 knowers, traceability of leaks, severity of consequences for leaking, size of secret, number of orgs)
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Besides deliberate leaks of bits, Shannon info theory also against huge, long-lived secrets like aliens in area 53.
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Human fraud/deceit detection evolved I think for accuracy at small hunter-gatherer group sizes, intuitions way off at larger scale
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There is a scale of secret-keeping beyond which it is easier to slow the diffusion by adding noise to leaks rather than trying to contain it
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