A sincere belief in the plausibility of large-scale (n>150, Dunbar's number say) secrecy is the main clueless trait in conspiracy thinking
Conversation
Replying to
I suspect you could discover a constitutive law relating the speed with which a secret is leaked and the number of people who know it at t=0
5
10
20
Replying to
Leak time = f(org containment of t=0 knowers, traceability of leaks, severity of consequences for leaking, size of secret, number of orgs)
2
2
Show replies
Replying to
No one outside of Google really knew about gmail until it launched. That always impressed me.
1
2
Replying to
I doubt that's actually true. I bet some people told spouses, some influential tech veterans got it on grapevine etc
1
2
Show replies
Replying to
It only takes 1 to believe that a conspiracy exists
1
Replying to
. 'Conspiracy theory' is usually applied for n>150 hypotheses (Apollo, 9/11 to be faked would have needed that)
2
Replying to
How long did it take for those to leak? Decades or so. Data point in the curve of the law.
Replying to
Remained secret from full public common knowledge. Long road to there from initial secret keepers via diffusion.
Replying to
Leak = first person who is not supposed to know it who learns of it. Damages start at that point, not when it hits NYT
1
Replying to
But yeah, reasonable qualifications in my follow up tweets on nature of the likely constitutive law

