1/ Historically, though statistics started in gambling, it has been driven by the risk-management motive, not the luck-creation motive
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Replying to @vgr
2/ One of the earliest applications to be systematized for instance, was life insurance for widows.
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Replying to @vgr
3/ Though many applications in science/tech are agnostic to risk-versus-luck angle, most social uses are on that spectrum and focus on risk
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Replying to @vgr
4/ Application of statistics/probability to stock markets is not about luck either, since beating market beyond historical gains is zero-sum
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Replying to @vgr
5/ i.e. since markets themselves create no wealth, if you beat history, it's because someone else is beaten by history by betting wrong
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Replying to @FavorableCarry
@vgr Participants trading creates a net benefit - we've known this Ricardo.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @FavorableCarry
@FavorableCarry I'm using Schumpeterian sense of wealth creation. Ricardo comp. adv. effects are eventually zero-sum asymptote1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
@FavorableCarry It's an attribution decision in the modeling. I attribute the path-wealth to pareto to original tech, not diffusion
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