1/ Historically, though statistics started in gambling, it has been driven by the risk-management motive, not the luck-creation motive
Conversation
Replying to
2/ One of the earliest applications to be systematized for instance, was life insurance for widows.
2
1
Replying to
3/ Though many applications in science/tech are agnostic to risk-versus-luck angle, most social uses are on that spectrum and focus on risk
1
2
Replying to
4/ Application of statistics/probability to stock markets is not about luck either, since beating market beyond historical gains is zero-sum
1
2
Replying to
5/ i.e. since markets themselves create no wealth, if you beat history, it's because someone else is beaten by history by betting wrong
7
1
2
Replying to
I don't think that is fair. You are referring to a sports book/parimutuel system here.
1
Replying to
Participants trading creates a net benefit - we've known this Ricardo.
1
Replying to
I'm using Schumpeterian sense of wealth creation. Ricardo comp. adv. effects are eventually zero-sum asymptote
1
Replying to
Right, but that's why markets create wealth. We (kinda) get to a pareto efficient point, but a lot of wealth is created getting there.
1
1
Replying to
It's an attribution decision in the modeling. I attribute the path-wealth to pareto to original tech, not diffusion

