3/ Though many applications in science/tech are agnostic to risk-versus-luck angle, most social uses are on that spectrum and focus on risk
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14/ So
#musklevel challenge to data/stats/probability wonks: invent a rigorous theory of luck/serendipity using hacking as first example -
15/ I'll offer a $100 reward to a new paper that panel of my mathy friends agree is a credible GUT of luck. Others: add to pot if you like.
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@vgr convex bets v/s concave bets is another way to think about it.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@vgr fundamental theory will change; the standard axiomatization relies on understanding full game; new axioms shift to unkown "large game"Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@vgr paraphrase: you can have it fast, cheap, *and* good, as long as you aren't too picky about what "it" is. Flânerie/bricolage/bootstrap.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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