Serendipity/zemblanity has almost completely replaced optimism/pessimism in my mental models. Fairly easy swap-out, dramatic results.
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Sounds same as, in Taleb's terms, an antifragility/Procrustean bed fragility dichotomy
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Not quite. Taleb refuses to go all the way to fully embracing serendipity. He applies the idea more narrowly to risk avoidance.
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Not seeing that, unless you say narrowness has to do with 1. focus on payoff over prob. or 2. preference for apophatic epistemology
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Basically, there's a slippery slope from antifragility to reactionary thinking and he's kinda half-slipped that way
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Okay, *very* different reading here. But my take prob influenced by discussions on his FB page while he was writing AF (from 2011)
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I've only read his books. I find him a bit tedious to engage directly on social media. I suppose he might have more nuance in person
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Bit of trivia: NNT had considered (among other things) naming AF "Wind and Fire" = the metaphor at beginning of book.
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I pick my bunnytrails carefully since I have energy only for a few. NNT is interesting but not rewarding enough for my interests
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Yeah. Seems to be mostly retreads, refinements and reinforcements tbh. His core (good) contributions haven't changed much.
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Go to one of his smaller events (the ones with Lebanese wine/coffee/or dinner afterwards). Very approachable in person if there is time

