5/ Real issue: our brains are completion engines. We are wired to complete incomplete pictures. We're addicted to such completion.
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Replying to @vgr
6/ But IO represents a condition of *overdetermined* realities. You are seeing data that represent 200% rather than 20% coverage of facts.
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Replying to @vgr
7/ For example, in this tweetstream, item 4 is missing (incompletion), and there are 2 item 5s (overdetermination) *pats self for nice save*
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Replying to @vgr
8/ Those who are strong at being data-driven are actually hit hardest, since they find many *more* clever ways to overfit data.
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Replying to @vgr
9/ Overfitting overdetermined reality = compounded noise = IO = Sense of mounting chaos. Anxiety provoking to all, paralyzing to data-driven
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Replying to @vgr
10/ The obvious alternative is narrative filtering (see recent Uber valution kerfuffle for example). This is vulnerable to confirmation bias
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11/ You mitigate confirmation bias through analytical rigor. When this is hard you get analysis paralysis.
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Replying to @vgr
12/ Us narrative/analytic types have long history of dealing with confirmation bias and analysis paralysis to learn from.
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Replying to @vgr
13/ Data-driven types otoh have only about 20 years of history dealing with overdetermination/overfitting problem and data paralysis.
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Replying to @vgr
14/ So... IO can be defined as being caught between rock and hard place: analysis paralysis and data paralysis.
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15/ When you're not paralyzed, you're in an stressful arms race between outbound narrative filtering and inbound data filtering.
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Replying to @vgr
16/ So IO subjectively feels like manic depression: caught between paralysis and snowballing crazymaking, orbitting around 'sensemaking'
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Replying to @vgr
17/ What to do about it? I don't know. Beware easy answers like "relevance" or "just do something."
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