Conversation

Replying to
I’d guess Twitter needs to replace at least a dozen “essentials” and maybe 100-200 “influentials.” The interchangeables (70-90%?) can be ignored. Can be replaced or automated (a lot of biz-process bureaucracy and moderation is going to get automated everywhere in this downturn).
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The influentials backfilling I think will be fine. Even with the terrible optics that this photo is attempting to counterprogram, enough people will be desperate or just morbidly curious enough. This photo is designed to recruit them. It’s like a college brochure stock photo.
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It’s the essentials that are the problem. They will bring opinionated design ideas that will disruptively alter the DNA of twitter’s core. They will generally be industry veterans (don’t forget this is a big, scaled, live-ops company), often with fuck-you money already banked.
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They will have no good reason to put up with bs. They will be in roles with exposure to Wrath of Elon or any pitbull CEO he installs to deliver “hardcore intense long hours” leadership. Any equity participation for a future exit is a higher-risk bet than unencumbered new startup.
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All this while the user base is *also* churning hard, and in that case, the highly engaged “influentials” user base churning the most (there are probably no “essentials” among users clearly if even POTUSes can be booted). It’s social media equivalent of CNN morphing into Fox.
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I read this while I was doing a study at Xerox ~2009 on whether there was a meaningful print-on-demand newspaper market. Talked to a bunch of veteran journalists, pro publica and knight people, Meyer, and others. But print was already in Silents/boomers endgame.
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5 possible outcomes here 1. Standard playbook PE turnaround. Shrink but get profitable in same business, pay off investment slowly 2. Meh lumpenapp (X-app= wechat+PayPal, compete with substack/YouTube/tiktok) 3. Creative leap 4. Early face-saving divestment 5. Slow death
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I guess one reason I’m sticking around is I’m 48 and GenX. I’d rather retire than try to reinvent myself on TikTok. Getting people like me to stick around isn’t worth much. We’re near-future AARP, being groomed to vote for President Ivanka while ranting on twitter in 2040.
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Replying to
I now think of my own willingness to adopt or stick around a product as a bad sign. Sorry Farcaster; fact that I’m on but my 18y old nephew is not is a yellow flag It’s not that my life is over, but it’s past the point where riding tech waves is the key to what’s left of it
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