Subtle thing: being unsurprised by an outcome is not the same as having predicted the outcome. Not being surprised could mean either that you forecast a narrative spread or that you’re indifferent across a spread. Suprisal is a function of how much and how precisely you care.
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Nah, not subtweeting you actually. Yiu make real predictions with overconfidence. Your phrase just reminded me of another kind of pseudo predictor.
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totally. i had a v similar thought thread after tweeting it out (surprise vs prediction)
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I wonder if you’d be good at pro poker 🤔
Since it’s a game where playing correctly and winning are not the same in the short term but converge in the long term. Tends to break people who overindex on being right and punishes “hot hand” thinking
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