Subtle thing: being unsurprised by an outcome is not the same as having predicted the outcome. Not being surprised could mean either that you forecast a narrative spread or that you’re indifferent across a spread. Suprisal is a function of how much and how precisely you care.
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Nah, not subtweeting you actually. Yiu make real predictions with overconfidence. Your phrase just reminded me of another kind of pseudo predictor.
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totally. i had a v similar thought thread after tweeting it out (surprise vs prediction)
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