Conversation

Subtle thing: being unsurprised by an outcome is not the same as having predicted the outcome. Not being surprised could mean either that you forecast a narrative spread or that you’re indifferent across a spread. Suprisal is a function of how much and how precisely you care.
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Nah, not subtweeting you actually. Yiu make real predictions with overconfidence. Your phrase just reminded me of another kind of pseudo predictor.
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I wonder if you’d be good at pro poker 🤔 Since it’s a game where playing correctly and winning are not the same in the short term but converge in the long term. Tends to break people who overindex on being right and punishes “hot hand” thinking
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I think I’d bet on you in games where there is correlation over time but not in games where is a lot of uncorrelated noise being mixed in. Politics is right on the cusp of the two kinds of games.
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