Based on track record, Elon’s engineering intuitions are probably:
A+ on physics/MechE/metallurgy/ops
A on ChemE, manufacturing, physical design
B on transactional s/w, AI
C to D on social s/w
F on neurotech
Tempting to dunk, but I’d expect him to learn fast here and get to B+
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He’s a bullshit artist on so many fronts it’s tempting to dismiss him as a bullshit artist on *all* fronts, like Trump. This is a mistake… I think he does have a preternatural talent for rapidly zeroing in on the right intuitions and strategic tradeoffs on engineering matters.
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A lot of average engineers like to dunk on him for not actually being an engineer and dismissing him as an econ major playing engineer. This is way off. From what I’ve seen his reputation as a strong engineering mind is well deserved. It’s just not… uniformly good on all topics.
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He may be wildly wrong initially (as he seems to be here) but he’ll get unreasonably right soon. A big part of why he’s able to improve his intuitions fast in entirely new topics is that he’s way bolder than most engineers. Most engineers have a blindness to bold design options.
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His technical style reminds me Lord Kelvin, who reportedly could not think about anything except in classical mechanical terms. Where effective translation to such terms was possible, he was surprisingly intuitive. Elsewhere… embarrassing errors.
web.mit.edu/redingtn/www/n
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But… moot point. It’s not clear he can buy enough time financially to allow any strengths-in-translation to kick in. With the own goals on non-engineering fronts continuing at a steady clip.
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I guess the issue comes in where he’s not designing a product from scratch; he’s taking over a massive (and massively important) operation that doesn’t really require immediate engineering, but rather management skills. He is failing massively on that front.
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This was certainly my take before the last two weeks. I'm less convinced of that now.




