Subtle thing: being unsurprised by an outcome is not the same as having predicted the outcome. Not being surprised could mean either that you forecast a narrative spread or that you’re indifferent across a spread. Suprisal is a function of how much and how precisely you care.
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Often people are unsurprised by an outcome in a broadly religious sense as in “it’s always the worst people who come out on top” or “the indomitable human spirit always prevails”
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An interesting tell is when people “mark their expectations to market” at some sort of narrative turn rather than at a specific point in time. This creates especially tautological outcomes.
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You just explained why options trading is hard. They are priced with specificity. So your outcomes are leveraged to that (which is why MNPI tricksters use em). But, usually you're just wrong in a specific way. Get the direction right and timing wrong.
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There’s an interesting parallel with dynamical systems theory: if you take opponent processing — two directionally opposed processes, eg. variation and selection in evolution — they work against each other but ultimately need each other to achieve progress (optimal adaptation).
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