Conversation

Replying to
Often people are unsurprised by an outcome in a broadly religious sense as in “it’s always the worst people who come out on top” or “the indomitable human spirit always prevails”
2
13
An interesting tell is when people “mark their expectations to market” at some sort of narrative turn rather than at a specific point in time. This creates especially tautological outcomes.
1
7
For eg. markets always cycle through booms and busts. Saying “gravity prevailed, haha” right after a crash is tautology sampling. Certain conditions will *always* occur periodically. If you merely note them as unsurprising validation when they appear, you’re not saying much.
2
15
Replying to
Nah, not subtweeting you actually. Yiu make real predictions with overconfidence. Your phrase just reminded me of another kind of pseudo predictor.
1
2
Show replies
Show replies
Replying to
People often say that something doesn't surprise them, which lets them kind of pretend that they predicted it, without making that explicit and having people demand receipts.
1