Social systems defy first-principles thinking unless you sinter them into a fused mass with well-behaved aggregate properties. Analogical thinking works slightly better but not by much. It’s a slim edge.
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I suspect free-speech fetishism (and “classical liberalism” fetishism generally) comes from imagining it’s like a first principle. Whether or not it’s good ethics, it’s definitely not one in a physics sense. As in, an FSF system is no more governable than any other.
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As neural networks better at chess, they become more illegible: you can't explain why they make the moves they do in words
This will happen in the world at large as we approach singularity: you won't be able to explain in words why anyone does what they do
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I wouldn't say it's impossible to use first principles to reason about social systems. You need some neuroscience background though.
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Feel like the resolution of first premise depends on how broadly you define context.
I.e.narrow context :eg family/small startup/couple - you can reasonably/sharply view first premise.
As context gets larger “first premises” are added, elevating noise qua group level
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I think about Cynefin and these are "complex" problems you do iteration on.
Social networks seem ideal for live micro experiments bc size is there and stakes are pretty low.
I could imagine changing org design / processes could significantly increase the tempo 😁 of gains.
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