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This is an excellent article. Didn’t have an opinion before but now I think HSR is bullshit. Because physics. By similar analysis, I think hyperloops are bs as well though perhaps slightly less so because the load wear aspect is missing.
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Article arguing that high speed rail is economically unviable caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2022/10/11/why
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Hmm, this metaphor tracks surprisingly well. L1 ossification = property rights/topography Protocol changes after ossification = eminent domain Authoritarianism = more BDFL ability to force changes HSR = physics that forces straighter lines which only dictators can do
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Replying to @vgr
The other pro-airplane take is simply that HSR requires consensus-layer changes to L1 whereas airplanes are mostly L2 with relatively lighter L1 work required (pushing to change FAA and a few other regs), and doing things at L2 is 10x easier. twitter.com/VitalikButerin
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I’m sure there are areas where it makes sense (close population centers with empty flat land in between), but I suspect potential is at best like 3x-5x today’s total miles. Barely a dent in either air or rail capacity. Most of earth’s surface does not have flat+empty routes.
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Replying to @vgr
I read it and disagree. For the SF-LA route, maybe. But several problems with a more general conclusion because: - arbitrary 300kmph definition for HSR - mostly ignoring externalities vis. climate - JR East consistently profitable before covid.
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As several people have pointed out, it’s a rough essay that misses several things, but not just points on the pro-HSR side. There’s also anti-HSR points he missed, like embodied carbon of tons of steel and concrete on a 5y replacement schedule. But the main point is solid.
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I’m a big rail fan too, but I don’t think it’s sad. I think the arguments against ordinary rail are weaker and I actually like low-speed rail a lot more. My few rides in European TGVs and even semi-high-speed Acela felt boring by contrast.
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sad day for train boys twitter.com/NGKabra/status…
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OP is probably right that rail is overall just obsolete, but it won’t go to zero. Low-speed rail will continue shrinking down to a few high-value cargo routes as it has been for decades, high-volume passenger routes (like in India), and bits of vanity HSR everywhere.
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Also something people don’t talk about: demand for mad dashing-around high-speed regional travel, where you want to do return day trips to SF from LA, is 99% bullshit business travel. That should be discouraged anyway. Most of us can afford to travel much slower, given good wifi.
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Besides one-way family emergency travel, almost nothing needs to happen as fast as we’re used to, now that so much can be done virtually over wifi. In fact I wonder if transoceanic ship travel will make a comeback. Leisurely week-long trips across Atlantic, spend a month at least
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