Is there any mechanism out there for me to short startups?
Or a VC that'd give me stakes in their fund for calling bullshit on product visions?
yeah, yeah, yeah, startups pivot, but there's no hope for founders who can't see the analytically testable flaws in their own theory.
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Not as a due diligence consultant. I want the risk and the 10x upside!
I'm an over-confidence killjoy who's too often right about predicting failures, how do I monetize that?!
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I think you’re misunderstanding the VC business. Predicting or avoiding failure is not important or high value. Key is to not miss the big successes. You’ll need a different way to monetize your skill if you’re right about being extra good at that.
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I understand it's not common but doesn't better utilization of funds justify it? specially now that capital is more limited.
I do have a near perfect track record of predicting short/long term product outcomes in my career, but the failures that nobody else saw feels more unique
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If anything it makes it even more desperate to focus on the big wins. Losing more efficiently doesn’t help. And the alpha in predicting failure is low because most startups fail. Marginal improvement in accuracy is not that useful.
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This is reasonable for the current snapshot of the VC ecosystem and funded startups, but it's not considering the false negatives suffocated by the noise of the false positives, much of it the result of the feedback loop in VCs pattern matching, and startups chasing patterns.
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