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2 sub-cases: Standard: Somebody takes a risk you won’t and fails Special: You take what you think is a risk but isn’t really a risk for you, but others don’t because it’s actually a serious risk for them
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Yes, if you take real risks. But if you take fake risks thinking they’re real, it makes you more judgmental not less, per special case above. Especially common with a certain kind of entrepreneur
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Replying to @vgr
and ze obvious corollary is that consistently taking risks tends to make one less judgemental, which isn't something id considered before now but maps v well with experience
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There’s some sort of generalization of moral hazard here. Judgmental attitudes are appropriate when people try to socialize losses and privatize gains, reshaping their risk/return curved stealthily. But the core instinct to punish that kind of risk-cheating easily metastasizes.
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Positive judgment seems to work better. When people take risks where upside is easily socialized (and hard to privatize) and losses are easily privatized, society seems to correctly esteem the results. It’s negative judgment that goes wrong.
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Society seems to work on a portfolio effect where our collective risk-taking (per capita) is much higher than individual risk tolerances, with generally positive effects, but the dissonance distorts judgments.
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“I’m nobly and selflessly advancing society with my martyr-level risks, you’re free-riding and socializing your costs, he’s a rent-seeking bond-villain.” Everybody understates the risks they’re dumping on others, overstates the positive externalities and spillovers.
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This is true whether you’re an entrepreneur, a soldier, or a social worker. Nobody can see the societal risk surface, everybody is doing the blind-men-and-elephant judgment thing.
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