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I think what's unfolding at C Suisse is shadow of what's happening in Russia. With their holdings/savings obliterated/frozen + major source of revenue (gas) severely diminished, their current economy will become non-functional + will have 2b reorganized.
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I wrote a thread on what I think is happening with Russian gas + obvious plans/activities to completely cut it out of Euro economies for the past year+. Europe won't *need* Russian gas after next year and could cope w/o before then.
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I'm not an expert on energy policy/foreign relations, it's not even a major hobby, but after doing ~90min of research I'm inclined to believe that what happened with Nord pipelines was probably not much of a surprise + just signals that the other pieces have fallen into place.
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Qualitatively interesting, but I’d like to see the numbers tallied up. Can Ukraine gas ramp up and LNG shipments by Hugh enough to cover the transition gap?
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I don't have nums for u rn (can look into it later if no one else replies) but my feeling (based on what I've read) is that other sources (and stored gas) will primarily supply transitionary period this winter + we won't see big jump in output frm Ukraine until (late?) next year.
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Thx for looking out for my thread. :) I didn't go as far as u suggest but perhaps new thread supplement brings it up to good+. TBH I'm not invested enough to bring it up to epic but I'm glad that I put a bit more effort into it. Some numbers for you:
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Europe has the capacity to import 489Bcm of natural gas and only uses 400Bcm. Germany has the ability to import 114Bcm while only using 94Bcm. It's unclear if generation can keep up with distribution though implication is that it won't. Europe/world will def see price shocks.
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Screen capture of text from cited IMF paper (link in top tweet).
Screen capture of text from cited IMF paper (link in top tweet).
Screen capture of text from cited IMF paper (link in top tweet).
Screen capture of text from cited IMF paper (link in top tweet).