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I think what's unfolding at C Suisse is shadow of what's happening in Russia. With their holdings/savings obliterated/frozen + major source of revenue (gas) severely diminished, their current economy will become non-functional + will have 2b reorganized.
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I wrote a thread on what I think is happening with Russian gas + obvious plans/activities to completely cut it out of Euro economies for the past year+. Europe won't *need* Russian gas after next year and could cope w/o before then.
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I'm not an expert on energy policy/foreign relations, it's not even a major hobby, but after doing ~90min of research I'm inclined to believe that what happened with Nord pipelines was probably not much of a surprise + just signals that the other pieces have fallen into place.
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I don't have nums for u rn (can look into it later if no one else replies) but my feeling (based on what I've read) is that other sources (and stored gas) will primarily supply transitionary period this winter + we won't see big jump in output frm Ukraine until (late?) next year.
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Do it fir your thread, not for me :) Ramp numbers would level up your thread from good to great. If you then add some lurid red string diagrams you can get it up to epic 😎
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Off top of my head, US will supply 15% more (15% of what, idk), more contracts have been given for North Sea, there's gas in Iberian Pen but pipeline that was supposed to connect to Eur wasn't finished--LNG tankers to Italy could be esp useful for that.