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Yep. Though I think expecting a NATO second strike is a deluded expectation of charismatic Cold War epic conflict, which shows how far gone Putin is. I suspect the US response plan is non-nuclear special forces decapitation etc.
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I think Kremlin may view nuclear strike on Ukraine (with an American retaliatory strike) as a rational move. It may not make much sense in the context of foreign policy, but it does in the context of domestic policy. Meanwhile foreign policy is just domestic policy by other means
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I suspect the most effective response to tactical nuke use would be big air campaign and inserting a big multinational special forces op with highly visible Ukrainian members doing the “liberation” photo-ops in Moscow.
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For all its big junky conventional military, the mix of terrible morale, fleeing potential draftees, crumbling backend, and third-world-autocrat power structure makes Russia an adversary more like Afghanistan or Iran than what it looks like on paper. Not a symmetric nuclear power
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There’s a weird sense of mismatch I’m getting comparing this to say Cuban missile crisis or Dr. Strangelove era nuclear scenarios. Russia lacks sufficient gravitas as an adversary, which makes it more dangerous. Far less to lose than 1960s Soviet Union. So acts crazier.
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