Conversation

Has anyone written about how modern nukes are a weapon of the weak (state)? The first and only use was an exceptional strong vs weak use. Now the biggest risk is weak and fragile states throwing a last big punch on the way down.
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I was mildly concerned during the Kargil War, but I don’t think Pakistan was fragile enough at the time to contemplate use. It was just border adventurism. Russia today feels a lot more desperate.
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This is why Iran and North Korea are particularly worrisome since they also have weak states and strong historical adversaries nearby. Weak in the sense of low ability to govern or provide any services beyond coercive policing and extraction focused ones.
Replying to
foreignaffairs.com/world/nuclear- "Einstein’s view ... touchstone of ... peace movement. Churchill’s ... mainstream Western ... doctrine. Both argued that the nuclear revolution had fundamentally transformed international politics. Both were wrong." Fun contrarian take.
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The powers that want nukes at this point are mainly countries that are worried about being invaded by much stronger conventional forces. It’s a form of indemnification.