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this feels a bit tautological "The Ukrainians picked the weakest spot in Russian defenses for their initial thrust -- an area controlled by the Luhansk militia with Russian National Guard units further back. T"
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I believe that you're underestimating the difficulty — or rather, the difficulty heretofore widely anticipated by professional miltwitter — of achieving surprise on a strategic scale in 2022. This required thousands of bits of misinformation and is widely considered epic.