random thought... unlike politics/culture topics, high-tech industries are really hard to understand from the outside in any way other than financial, because you can't even see the 90% of the iceberg within which crucial details are buried, even if you're smart enough to learn
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from the outside, you're limited to: benchmark info, product releases, financial performance... this is NOT enough to form even the beginnings of a mental model of how the industry actually works, it's a "financial experience" ... FX, like UX, with a metaphoric overlay
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it doesn't matter how smart you are, you won't even be aware of the existence of half the moving parts... if you dig very hard, you can increase your situation awareness from say 25% to 30% relative to insiders, but that's about it
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This is probably a good thing if all you care about is financial performance. You can tune out all the details that matter for understanding the thing as opposed to tracking its success/failure potential. But you won't understand it. The "green lumber" problem.
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The main cost is time. If you understand a high-tech sector directly through access to insider knowledge, you'll be about 6-18 months ahead of the market. They'll catch up to significant developments only when it shows up in financial heat signatures.
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I've been on the inside/outside of both several high-tech industries and political/cultural things. In the latter, though there is an insider/outsider distinction (emic/etic) it is largely inconsequential. Kinda like theological diffs.
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I think this is why I have limited interest in pure analyst-mode sectoral intelligence. If people are not willing to dive in at least a little into the "green lumber" aspects and pierce the FX veil, I'm kinda not interested unless I own the stock or something.
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I like veil-piercing analysis where somebody with insider knowledge goes beyond quarterly performance and stuff and digs into industry history, guesses at significance of public info, is able to pull out key details from behind the veil, etc.
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eg: seminanalysis for semiconductors, the column for chemical engineering...

