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You’re at an indeterminate location on Earth where it rains 122/365 days in a year (so about 1/3 of the days). It rained today. What is the probability it will rain tomorrow?
  • < 1/3
    11.4%
  • ~= 1/3
    51.3%
  • > 1/3
    33.3%
  • ~ 1
    3.9%
2,949 votesFinal results
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Yes I can. There are seasons almost everywhere on earth, especially places where it rains a third of the time. Indeterminate location doesn’t mean no information
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I mean, in this format I think "indeterminate" means (or at least comes off as) "unknowable and irrelevant." Not simply "unknown, but maybe important." But I see what you're getting at here vis a vis "test taking" conditions. Cool. But I ain't clicking that poll ;P
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Bounded indeterminacy so it’s narrower than it seems at first glance. It would be unreasonable to assume the middle of the Sahara or even LA is in scope given 122/360. Ann Arbor might be depending on if you interpret rain as precipitation and include snow.
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Btw “indeterminate location where it rains ~122 days in a year” is strong scoping. Deserts are out, as are places like equatorial rainforests where it rains almost every day (so >300). Whether you’re count snow as rain is interpretation. I didn’t intend that but it’s justifiable
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I guess. I still say the context of your question implies (if not outright states) that the location is irrelevant and "122 days of rain" isn't based in reality. But, again, I appreciate how you're evaluating our response to "tests" vs "reality."
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