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You’re at an indeterminate location on Earth where it rains 122/365 days in a year (so about 1/3 of the days). It rained today. What is the probability it will rain tomorrow?
  • < 1/3
    11.4%
  • ~= 1/3
    51.3%
  • > 1/3
    33.3%
  • ~ 1
    3.9%
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I think the indeterminate location is key. In a rainy season location >0.33 is the best answer but not all locations have a rainy season. Rainier yes but not rainy. One needs to know the likelihood of randomly being in a rainy season location or indeed a drought zone.
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