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You’re at an indeterminate location on Earth where it rains 122/365 days in a year (so about 1/3 of the days). It rained today. What is the probability it will rain tomorrow?
  • < 1/3
    11.4%
  • ~= 1/3
    51.3%
  • > 1/3
    33.3%
  • ~ 1
    3.9%
2,949 votesFinal results
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I wouldn't say so. It's probably the best guess you can make in the absence of context, since all the unknown factors average out to make our one piece of info (it rained today) meaningless.
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Sometimes, but not in this case. If you don’t know which direction they’re weighted, then you don’t know which direction it’s going to shift the probability. Acting on this information is nothing more than a guess with a 50% chance of being wrong.
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Read the rest of the thread, especially the last bits. Zero mean additive noise is a strong assumption when there’s more circumstantial evidence of correlation than anti correlation.
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If this approach bothers you, try snow rather than rain. Snow is more obviously and strongly seasonal. Even more obvious: You’re at an indeterminate location where Christmas music plays in public X days a year. You heard Christmas music today, will you hear it tomorrow?
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The difference here is that there's less complexity w/ Christmas music than weather patterns. There's a best guest to be made in either situation, but Christmas music is vastly simpler since it's relatively immune to feedback (calendar-based) and bound by predictable tradition.
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