Conversation

You’re at an indeterminate location on Earth where it rains 122/365 days in a year (so about 1/3 of the days). It rained today. What is the probability it will rain tomorrow?
  • < 1/3
    11.4%
  • ~= 1/3
    51.3%
  • > 1/3
    33.3%
  • ~ 1
    3.9%
2,949 votesFinal results
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Replying to
Strong temptation to assume facts not in evidence. Rain is generally seasonal, so "it rained today" raises the posterior probability of "it's the rainy season", so one can thereby rationalize "> 1/3".
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53
Replying to and
I get the distinct impression that, whilst the timing of individual raindrops during a given minute is very nearly Poisson distributed, the timing of rainy days shows greater correlation.
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