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10 months later… yeah, this is still at 10%… vaccines seem capable of racing the virus, but people seem capable of throwing away the vaccine advantage
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Scenario Z chugs on nature.com/articles/d4158
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On the plus side, South Park special that aired today (thanksgiving 2021) plays scenario z for laughs quite well
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Fascinating how people are willing to ignore/deny plausible scenarios because no-solution-exists is not a condition people used to high agency can deal with. It’s an extreme version of solution aversion (bias where people deny problems because they don’t like solutions on offer)
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This is still like a 10% scenario for me. A scenario z world is survivable for the majority but not accepting it means you’ll be deranged about it.
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Earlier I did a side quote thread on optimistic sub-scenario that omicron marked the end as a natural-vaccine wave. Sounds like that’s… not true.
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If omicron has a natural vaccine on effect, there’s a chance we’re getting off the Scenario Z path and might be actually done by summer. If it turns out future deadlier breakthrough variants blow past omicron natural immunity, we’re not done. $64m question: which is it? twitter.com/vgr/status/135…
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Looks like we continue a sort of slow walk down the Scenario Z road, except afaict we’ve kinda given up.
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BA.5 has the most transmissibility and immune escape of any version of the virus since the pandemic began. Although its spike(S) sequence is nearly the same as BA.4, there are several mutations in other parts of the virus that may account for its⬆️fitness outbreak.info
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More on new omicrons
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For the science & epi of BA.5, I encourage you to read @EricTopol’s terrific @SubstackInc review. erictopol.substack.com/p/the-ba5-story We’ve now gotten used to Omicron sub-variants – each about 20% more infectious than the prior one – and so it’s easy to be lulled into thinking… (2/25)
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