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Inner loop Water prices go up —> ag water use shrinks —> feed prices go up —> factory farmed meat prices go up —> diets go more plant-based Outer loop: —> livestock base shrinks —> less ag carbon emissions New lower water use equilibrium I like the overall macro trends here
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One reason for climate optimism is that all the market pressures are actually lined up for accelerating fast failures of unsustainable systems. You kinda don’t need ESG or green activism in many cases. Just green accelerationism judo move. Get behind bad incumbents and push.
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Logic possibly works for water, land use etc, but not for things like coal or oil of course Coal isn’t on a natural path to killing itself. It needed the assisted involuntary suicide pressure regulators are applying
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I don’t think left accelerationism works, but green accelerationism might Increasingly thinking green is neither left nor right, it’s a new political eigenvector that’s far more basic than either, and starts to dominate as we get closer to resource boundaries
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Climate change is not an existential risk in the asteroid-that-killed-dinosaurs sense. Even the most extreme nonlinear collapse scenarios (eg extreme droughts/floods/heatwaves/permafrost anthrax epidemics ) will likely leave a majority of humans alive…
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And lots of local fast failures will possibly involve less net misery than drawn out mitigation that keeps bad systems on life support through compromises. The collapse of the Colorado might end up being viewed in hindsight as the most humane thing.
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Funny thing… if the Colorado river economy collapses in the next decade, the Right gets their wish… migration from Central America will go down sharply. Their SW destination will be a hellhole and Nicaragua would be preferable probably.