I smell a second AI winter looming. The wow factor has reached diminishing returns. The crackpots have cracked. The bullshitiness problems standing between tech and GDP impact are now the bottleneck. Fab capacity still backed up. Robots not ready yet. Macro environment is crap.
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The GOFAI academic AI people I knew in late 90s were winter people. In some ways a lot more interesting than today even though they turned out to be wrong about many important things.
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Esp. factoring energy and chip fabrication costs/capacity, if scale is really the ticket. AI folks forget they live on a messy planet
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I've got friends who've been predicting a second AI winter almost continuously since 2013
I predict the opposite, we're in an AI spring
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I doubt there will ever be another AI winter, barring technological collapse or Butlerian jihad. Regardless of its use in marketing nonsense, it's proven enough commercial value.
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at least we can now produce AI-generated 70s sci-fi films from our bedrooms, so there's that
overall wouldn't underestimate the cultural impact of MJ/DALLE/GPT3 et al
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