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Well, about that. developer.nvidia.com/isaac-gym Developing RL-based robotics (robots that actually learn) got radically cheaper last year, when NVIDIA came out with a simulation environment that can be trained on a GPU.
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Anyhow, apart from self-driving, I see a conspicuous absence of resources being dedicated to "physical-world AI", so unless you think it's very very easy to generalize from images/text/games to "IRL", that's an argument against the very shortest timelines.
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I still haven't been able to find any companies investing serious resources (millions of dollars per training run) into deep-reinforcement-learning robotics, but that might change when training environments & software get good enough to reward that investment.
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Its weird how most AI people seem to think robotics (and embodiment more generally) is just a minor extra detail like choosing a paint color after building a house.
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