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This is gibberish based on a graph of trends in crowdsourced predictions. It's an *opinion poll*, not even something vaguely meaningful like sizes of models measured in parameter terms or amount of training data. Like saying "estimated time to the Rapture has fallen 70%""
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you are distracted by noise over the past 2 months, the estimated time to Artificial General Intelligence has fallen by between 60 and 70% (find me a chart that is more macro-economically meaningful than this one; I’ll wait)
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Yeah, it's an ordinary engineering type risk, similar to nuclear or pandemic etc. AGI frames it as an eschatological risk which I find stupid.
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So could a dozen other things... nearby wormhole opening up, asteroid collision, big solar flare, nonlinear climate change, nuclear holocaust... none of those produce the kind of brain-frying nonsense discourses AI does
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Do you have a write up anywhere of why you’re so skeptical? This paper is most level headed articulation of safety problems I know of, my impression is that few if any have been addressed, and risk is v real I’ve been out of the loop for a while though.
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