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This is gibberish based on a graph of trends in crowdsourced predictions. It's an *opinion poll*, not even something vaguely meaningful like sizes of models measured in parameter terms or amount of training data. Like saying "estimated time to the Rapture has fallen 70%""
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you are distracted by noise over the past 2 months, the estimated time to Artificial General Intelligence has fallen by between 60 and 70% (find me a chart that is more macro-economically meaningful than this one; I’ll wait)
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Ironic that he's saying "you're distracted by the noise." This sort of thing IS the distracting noise. AI is actually getting interesting, and the religious AGI types are starting to get really annoying now. And some of them run terrible investment funds too.
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Okay, that part is better then, but relies on a shaky ontological leap from "collection of specific tasks" to "weakly general"
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Replying to @vgr
Here's the Metaculus page for the"weakly general AI" prediction tracked in that graph. It's defined in terms of performance numbers on a collection of specific tasks: metaculus.com/questions/3479
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Things like parameter counts I definitely take seriously, but they measure exactly what they measure... a technical trend like transistor density.
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Replying to @GradySimon and @vgr
There are also predictions for things like parameter count: metaculus.com/questions/4518
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Basically, I think dropping the "G" from "AGI" in your vocabulary increases the IQ of your thinking about AI by 80 points 🤡 Can GPT do irony yet? I could be open to being convinced that capacity for irony is genuine "generality" in intelligence rather than a stats artifact
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I have this sneaking suspicion that "AGI" became the preferred term of art in a subculture because of resentment over the "moving goalposts" phenomenon. So long as you think of intelligence in a specific sense, the goalposts can always be moved on you. This is a feature not a bug
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