Conversation

In the first week of April 2020, I decided to make predictions and write them down. I wanted to see how caught up in the moment I was, how I was assessing things wrong, and what I get right. Some are embarrassingly off. Here are some of the predictions & full list at bottom 👇
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Most off: "2nd dip in markets by end of 2020 leads to negative turn in sentiment & broad resentment dow drops below 17000 and stays within 2000 points for 6 months" things snapped back pretty quick and we're 10% higher than feb 2020 why? overindexed on 2008 experience.
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also wanted to make some weird predictions: -variolation tested somewhere in 2020 - Hacker / tech bro types to start variolation digital cult & monetize i am still surprised there was no true test of variolation anywhere though some have hypothesized that masks simulateed this
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also wrong: - trump wins 2020 - someone other than biden runs against trump underestimated bidens ability to stay healthy and out of public and also trumps incompetence in pandemic
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some truth: "Apple to roll out digital health via watch or other device with live feeds to health authorities" They did have integration for this and it was used successfully in some countries (I was using it in Taiwan) but overestimated how capable authorities were + trust
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some truth: "Some sort of UBI / payments / universal basic services emerges for US by end of 2021" I'd argue that at current subsidy levels + biden parent subsidies this is coming into form. was also more stimulus payments than i expected. also a mainstream political idea now
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some evidence: "It will become a trend for boomers to pass wealth down before they pass “pre-inheritance” I don't think we've seen this show up in data via a strong signal but i think a lot of boomers are likely helping out with housing right now for younger gens
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