Elizabeth Holmes was the Steve Jobs knock off, but Musk is kinda his own knockoff 🤔
The real deal and the humbug pretender rolled into one, and you never quite know which one you’re getting
Actually he doesn’t seem to know either. Midwit imposters often find themselves out of their depth, but Musk seems to barbell between bottom-wit and top-wit. And when he’s bottom-witting something it feels like he’s not so much out of his depth as missing an entire salient level.
Logging an idea that seems important for future reference. A lot of shaky thinking is marked by what @bysl referred to as “confidence at the wrong abstraction level”
Tesla shorts misread Tesla as a bottom-wit thing, and even Matt Levine and other biz analysts I think fundamentally don’t get the depth of accomplishment at Tesla, in their hurry to prematurely declare EV tech a commodity. Now I strongly suspect the reverse mistake is being made.
Ok but, as anyone who has actually driven a Tesla knows, Musk is constantly overpromising on FSD. As in, it's nowhere near fully autonomous for like 10 years. How does that factor in?
that is simple, he thought FSD was easy and it was not
google made the same mistake, as all other that promised that in 2020 self driving would be there
probably is a good analogy for twitter, he probably think it is easy, it is not, then he will try to keep improving it anyway
99% of the value prop was and remains EVs and they’re still farther ahead of the competition on that than people realize. Self-driving is just a nice-to-have R&D and marketing vector