Conversation

At some level I think the rest of the world kinda treats the Middle East as a special case. You expect it to be a permanent mess as it has been for 3000 years. Wars elsewhere feel more exceptional and riskier for the world at large somehow.
3
10
Afghanistan: 20 years, Iraq: 7y. Syria: 11y. Note that none of these is actually over. They’ve just reached endemic-but-contained-meltdown state. Wars these days take long to stabilize. Peace isn’t even the goal. Stable Hobbesian endgames are.
2
9
Maybe this is how the Westphalian state ends. As a slow dissolution into stable conflict with half ass endless peace processes. Starting in margins, moving to civilizational cores.
4
8
Replying to
I think there has been exactly such a loss of willpower. Geriatric societies around the world just want to retire in prosperous peace, not fight wars of destitution.
Quote Tweet
Replying to @vgr
If the breakdowns aren't contained, that seems plausible. I'm hopeful that there can be a resolution in Ukraine, and even in Syria, but I worry that you're right, and this is a symptom of a loss of willpower to maintain the international order, rather than a strategic retreat.
3
12