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I don’t think I saw anybody claim the Ukrainians could win. The difference is you argued it’s all going according to plan while others are arguing this has turned out to be far costlier and messier than they planned for.
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Personally I don’t think this has gone according to plan at all. You were possibly right about what the failed plan was (slug it out without air superiority), but it does seem to have turned into 10x the pyrhhic slog they anticipated, even if they do have higher tolerance for it
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Timeline expectations revealed by deployment patterns mainly… I find play-by-play analysis overall compelling. I think they expected to get to Kiev as fast as the US got to Baghdad. You deploy differently for a month long slog as opposed to a 1-week C2 decapitation
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The big road column appears to have finally dispersed into a more conventional 2d front for a longer thing. I’m guessing they either didn’t expect to be sitting ducks on the road that long, or the mud freeze level didn’t cooperate for a while (did it get colder?)