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I don’t think I saw anybody claim the Ukrainians could win. The difference is you argued it’s all going according to plan while others are arguing this has turned out to be far costlier and messier than they planned for.
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Personally I don’t think this has gone according to plan at all. You were possibly right about what the failed plan was (slug it out without air superiority), but it does seem to have turned into 10x the pyrhhic slog they anticipated, even if they do have higher tolerance for it
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Russian doctrine is very different, but American performance is comparable. America captured Baghdad on day 20 of ground operations. It's day 15. I don't expect it to fall by day 20 to be clear. But war is slower and more of a shit show than people believe!
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The big road column appears to have finally dispersed into a more conventional 2d front for a longer thing. I’m guessing they either didn’t expect to be sitting ducks on the road that long, or the mud freeze level didn’t cooperate for a while (did it get colder?)
glad to see that you read . this recent 🧵 gave me a level 💡"synthesis feeling" I haven't felt since I first read the Gervais Principle years ago.
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War of memes: why Z-war won't end with peace Some Western analysts unfamiliar with Eastern European cultural context perceive Z-war as an accident. They presume that Russian invasion results from some sort of "misunderstanding" or mistake which can be resolved via negotiations🧵
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