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I don’t think I saw anybody claim the Ukrainians could win. The difference is you argued it’s all going according to plan while others are arguing this has turned out to be far costlier and messier than they planned for.
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Personally I don’t think this has gone according to plan at all. You were possibly right about what the failed plan was (slug it out without air superiority), but it does seem to have turned into 10x the pyrhhic slog they anticipated, even if they do have higher tolerance for it
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Indeed. It's important to baseline against consensus estimates, and then check that against military preparations taken by Russia & the west. It appears the RU, EU & US over-estimated Russian military performance and underestimated the Ukraine army, and prepared accordingly.
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That changes the odds and probabilities towards Ukraine, but net-net the odds are still in Russia's favor. The paths to Ukr victory increased above nearly-nil, and the paths to Russian victory decreased, versus pre-war estimates.
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Timeline expectations revealed by deployment patterns mainly… I find play-by-play analysis overall compelling. I think they expected to get to Kiev as fast as the US got to Baghdad. You deploy differently for a month long slog as opposed to a 1-week C2 decapitation
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