There's 2 ways to interpret this xkcd joke, which do you prefer?
a) Prior probability of the sun having gone nova as opposed to some error is vanishingly low
b) If it HAS gone nova, a $50 bet is meaningless anyway, so taking other side is pure upside
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I think randall munroe intended a) which is a standard explainer type joke, but I've always read it is as b) which is more a sort of frame-ontology joke that has nothing to do with bayesian vs. frequentist, but has to do with the actual meaning of the two outcomes
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Thought of this again due to this tweet... ludicrous though it might seem, BCA is absolutely right in their summary assessment due to the logic of b) -- "armageddon possible... buy the dip in stocks"
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Amazing note from BCA: "The risk of Armageddon has risen dramatically. Stay bullish on
stocks over a 12-month horizon."
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Rare case of a joke being much funnier than intended in a broader interpretation. Usually jokes get less funny when you broaden the context, not more.
Replying to
Even funnier/punnier interpreation b.2:
Sun going nova is an infinitely inflationary scenario that makes the dollar worthless, since there are no hyperspatial starship tickets to buy, and all the dollars in the world are chasing an item with zero supply.
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I'd be willing to bet asymmetrically... I'll pay you 1 zillion dollars if the sun goes nova, if you're willing to pay me $50 if it doesn't
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details of how I plan to earn 1 zillion dollars while the earth is melting tbd
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Yep, an anthropic principle argument basically. Perhaps there can be such a thing as anthropic statistics. Which might really just be non-ergodic statistics. Hmm, this might be worth writing up.
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Replying to @vgr
This seems to be related to the idea that we live in a timeline in which we have already survived extraordinary odds.
Only this kind of timeline has any future; maybe that's why we find it to be the case.
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Replying to
Pure upside bets also neatly explain how our species has managed to avoid Armageddon for so long. Given our nature, we never should have made it beyond the tribal stage.



