This is one of the funnier things I’ve seen this week. Self-styled analyst from Tucker Carlson show confidently goes from denying possibility of invasion to calling it a done deal.
I’m always impressed by how much these guys want to believe that there is a Grand Plan at work.
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Since I was old enough to follow the news I’ve probably followed a dozen wars of this size since the 80s, and literally not a single one went according to anyone’s plans.
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The trick to analyzing a war is to wait 50 years after it’s over. You still won’t get it right but nobody will be able to credibly challenge your take unless you make outrageous mistakes.
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Well - it turns out that the 100 year old take on WWI was wrong. Recent historical analysis has proven that there was no Schliefen plan. The Imperial German attack was a response to the expected French invasion of Alsace and a German attempt to force a quick end to the war.
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Then there is the whole Thermopylae thing. It took about 2500 years but the Spartan actions are not quite what the history books claimed they were.
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And then there is AJP Taylor and the Origins of the Second World War. He was the historian who showed the culpability of the Great Powers and their selfish actions that enabled Hitler.
I would argue that we are always in the process of getting it right.
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Actually the Neanderthals and Denisovans won the war with Homo sapiens and just went extinct anyway because they were bored 😇
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In the case of WWI - the French army had a pretty well understood strategic goal to reverse the outcome of 1870. And the Russians wanted to capture more of Western Europe especially the balkans.
The German response was a rational defensive maneuver.
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