Conversation

This is one of the funnier things I’ve seen this week. Self-styled analyst from Tucker Carlson show confidently goes from denying possibility of invasion to calling it a done deal. I’m always impressed by how much these guys want to believe that there is a Grand Plan at work.
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Since I was old enough to follow the news I’ve probably followed a dozen wars of this size since the 80s, and literally not a single one went according to anyone’s plans.
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The trick to analyzing a war is to wait 50 years after it’s over. You still won’t get it right but nobody will be able to credibly challenge your take unless you make outrageous mistakes.
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Replying to
Well - it turns out that the 100 year old take on WWI was wrong. Recent historical analysis has proven that there was no Schliefen plan. The Imperial German attack was a response to the expected French invasion of Alsace and a German attempt to force a quick end to the war.
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Replying to
In the case of WWI - the French army had a pretty well understood strategic goal to reverse the outcome of 1870. And the Russians wanted to capture more of Western Europe especially the balkans. The German response was a rational defensive maneuver.
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