Conversation

This chart on the impact of 2008 and 2014 sanctions is interesting. Sanctions do work if you choose to be sufficiently connected to the global economy under neoliberal orthodoxy rules of engagement and standards of "good behavior."
Image
2
2
The argument seems to rest on the observation that the rouble rests primarily on internal bond markets, not global, and the forex heavy oil exports kinda decouple internal/external economies in an interesting.
1
The problem with the argument is that despite its oil-based trade surplus before the war, Russia is not actually positioned to be self-sufficient in everything it needs to actually run this play. It was a full-stack economy historically, but unclear how true that is today.
1
5
So the implied endgame is: Russia only sells enough oil and gas to pay for what it is still actually allowed to buy. Less actually, since it has a surplus even after frozen assets. So trade collapses to sanctioned level. Meanwhile, MMT+China support reinflate the domestic economy