I don't quite understand the argument, but this by is great. Russia was managing a sovereign economy like a non-sovereign one, exercising strict fiscal discipline. It is positioned to potentially MMT its way out of the impact of sanctions.
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This chart on the impact of 2008 and 2014 sanctions is interesting. Sanctions do work if you choose to be sufficiently connected to the global economy under neoliberal orthodoxy rules of engagement and standards of "good behavior."
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The argument seems to rest on the observation that the rouble rests primarily on internal bond markets, not global, and the forex heavy oil exports kinda decouple internal/external economies in an interesting.
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The problem with the argument is that despite its oil-based trade surplus before the war, Russia is not actually positioned to be self-sufficient in everything it needs to actually run this play. It was a full-stack economy historically, but unclear how true that is today.
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So the implied endgame is: Russia only sells enough oil and gas to pay for what it is still actually allowed to buy. Less actually, since it has a surplus even after frozen assets. So trade collapses to sanctioned level. Meanwhile, MMT+China support reinflate the domestic economy
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Russia can just print or "virtually transfer" The currency held off shore into its central bank accounts and has probably done so already. But it doesn't make anyone want to hold the Rouble or buy from them or sell to them.
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except for oil and gas, a loophole big enough to drive a military convoy through
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Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
Image is my amateurish translation. twitter.com/mironov_fm/sta…
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