“In 2016, about 2.3 million homes were worth $1 million or more. Meanwhile, in 2019, that figure was roughly 3.1 million. However, compared to the total 78.7 million owner-occupied homes, less than 4% of homes are worth $1 million or more.”
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Wonder which segment of the market these rumblings of a foreclosure crisis are about. I’m guessing low end. The million-plus premium market is probably stronger, not weaker, in terms of quantity and quality of debt load.
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Today in Probably Nothing:
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"Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 32,900
Month-over-month change: 702.44%
Year-over-year change: 457.63%"
This is a *leading* indicator, given the backlog. Delinquencies will look good for a bit before they rise.
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Besides my own home-buying explorations, this interests me as a mansionization index. If million plus is growing stronger and the 374k median band is getting precarious and the cheaper <250k is getting killed, the economy is getting mansionized.
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“No state tax” is I think an interesting sociological filter because it seems to be a big driver of [median, luxury] housing decisions. Poor people stay put, rich people can own in multiple states so irrelevant, middle class is willing to move states and it is tax-consequential.
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it's pretty complicated due to high property taxes - OG Austin residents in houses that mega appreciated are stretched by monthly tax payments just as they retire and the houses fall apart
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my next door neighbor had inherited a similar house from her grandmother, she spoke frankly about not being able to afford to leave. with her brother and a couple of their kids around, they couldn't afford to rent or buy anything else suitable for 2+ hours drive in any direction
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the house we bought is well under $1million but it still appreciated 2x in past few years. family oriented neighborhood w little turnover year to year. everyone is incredibly nice, it's a safe and pleasant area but you can tell who's now stuck forever and who is Austin gentrifier
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we are now in 78749, southwest Austin. There is very little inventory but smallish houses pop up for $500-700k or so at a regular clip.
the bidding wars must be intense, part of why we bought when we did is a family member of a friend was selling it so we avoided that entirely
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