“In 2016, about 2.3 million homes were worth $1 million or more. Meanwhile, in 2019, that figure was roughly 3.1 million. However, compared to the total 78.7 million owner-occupied homes, less than 4% of homes are worth $1 million or more.”
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Wonder which segment of the market these rumblings of a foreclosure crisis are about. I’m guessing low end. The million-plus premium market is probably stronger, not weaker, in terms of quantity and quality of debt load.
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"Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 32,900
Month-over-month change: 702.44%
Year-over-year change: 457.63%"
This is a *leading* indicator, given the backlog. Delinquencies will look good for a bit before they rise.
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Besides my own home-buying explorations, this interests me as a mansionization index. If million plus is growing stronger and the 374k median band is getting precarious and the cheaper <250k is getting killed, the economy is getting mansionized.
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“No state tax” is I think an interesting sociological filter because it seems to be a big driver of [median, luxury] housing decisions. Poor people stay put, rich people can own in multiple states so irrelevant, middle class is willing to move states and it is tax-consequential.
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Of the no-tax states, Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming, only WA is reliably Blue. It is also the best weather imo.
Only 3 of these states have meaningful economic dynamism — WA, TX, FL.
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99% decided to leave California this year, and 99% of that we’ll likely move back to WA, whether we buy or rent. Florida is definitely out. Texas is an outlier possibility, but I do think everybody rushing there is doing so entirely because friends are moving there.
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Big-ass state tax bill for 2021 has punctured any illusions I may have had that CA is an outside prospect for me long-term. Gotta have a paycheck to make math work out here. It’s a financial full-court press against you here. Lovely weather but everything else stacked against.
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Free agency is a big enough financial uncertainty burden that you need at least one free strategic option working in your favor — tax advantage, cheap rent, cheap housing, free healthcare, family nearby… CA offers none of these.
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The biggest free strategic option is just being young and single and willing able to tolerate slumming indefinitely.
Revealing that I only moved here at all for a 9-mo fellowship. Enough like a job to make it work out… for a while. Would have left earlier if not for pandemic.
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Cunning plan:
Move back to WA
Buy smol mansion in MSFT/AMZN exurbs
Trash-talk TX, FL and talk up WA
Get others to move here
Mansion values go up
Flip smol mansion for tropical island retirement villa
Buy Russian oligarch yacht at firesale price
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These aren't "no-tax" states. They're "different tax" states.
All states raise revenue; it's just about how they get there. E.g. Income vs property vs sales vs tobacco vs estate vs gas vs alcohol, etc.
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We made the move from San Francisco to Las Vegas in 2020 and love it here! Great food and entertainment, cheap housing, amazing hiking and camping, great weather (except for summer, which you should spend in a pool), cheap flights to everywhere, and everyone likes to visit.
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